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Week 9 NFL betting analysis and takeaways: Surprises leave bettors reeling in New York

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James Robinson of the Jets scores a TD in the second half during the NY Jets' 20-17 win over the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on November 6, 2022 .

James Robinson of the Jets scores a TD in the second half during the NY Jets’ 20-17 win over the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on November 6, 2022 .

USA TODAY NETWORK

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The NFL betting season reaches the halfway mark this week. It’s been a year of underdogs, underdogs and a huge number of surprises on the field and on your favorite betting site.

At one extreme, the Philadelphia Eagles are perfectly positioned heading into Week 10, while the Seattle Seahawks sit atop the NFC West. On the other side, the Green Bay Packers are five games behind the Minnesota Vikings in the losing streak, with the Super Bowl champion LA Rams in last place.

Oddsmen and favorite NFL spread betting enthusiasts were not spared. Underdogs are 55.5% this season (75-55-5) entering a Sunday night game in Week 10.

If you simply compare them to the favorites and throw out the draw, the number rises to 58.3%. That winning percentage is better than 22 of the NFL’s 32 team ATS. If it holds, it would be “the dogs best run against the line since 2002”.

Using our system of betting $100 on the underdog every week of the season, you will win $1507 per season. The underdogs are 48-73-1 straight up. Depending on where you get your money, you’ll get around $1,000 this season backing the underdogs.

The best surprises so far … Plus and minus

We checked in with several oddsmakers and sportsbook representatives at the top betting sites to find out what they’ve seen on the ground and digitally in terms of positive and negative surprises so far, and what to expect between now and the Super Bowl.

SuperBook Sports Vice President of Risk Management Jeff Sherman

“Two New York teams in the positive and the Packers in the negative.” (Biggest surprise of the second half) Buffalo won’t win the AFC East. They are the best power team in the NFL, but have a slim lead in the division and could be caught by Miami.”

WynnBET Senior Trader Chris Yoon

“For good, it should be the Jets, Giants and Seahawks. (Coach Robert) Saleh has his defense to stay in games. Either way, the Giants continue to execute on both sides of the ball, especially in the fourth quarter. Geno (Smith) in Seattle with a new OC Shane Waldron was quite surprising given the youth on his roster.

“The bad guys have to be the Packers and the Rams. Both teams just can’t make simple, important plays on offense, and both defenses have been on the field too long this year because of bad offenses.”

Borgata AC Racing and Sporting Director Thomas Gable

“The biggest surprise was the Seattle Seahawks. They are top of the division they finished bottom of and it looked like they made a big decision by canceling Russell Wilson.

“They have a balanced offense and their defense has turned things around nicely since the beginning of the year. There are plenty of good stories this year with surprise starts from teams like the Jets and Giants. But Seattle leads them. The biggest surprise to watch for in the second half will be whether any of these teams can keep their momentum going and challenge for their divisions or make the playoffs. The teams you’re used to fighting for championships (Green Bay, Tampa Bay and the defending champions, the LA Rams) may end up not making the playoffs.”

BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini

“I could pick about 15 surprises at the moment. No one would have thought the Bucs, Packers, Rams and Broncos would contend. The biggest surprise is the Seahawks, this team was expected to be one of the worst in football and is a real threat to win the NFC West. The biggest surprises to watch for in the second half of the season are the two New York teams. The Giants and Jets have had good starts to the season, but could make the playoffs.”

Week 9 Betting Summary in numbers

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November 6, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Chris Jones (95) celebrates with quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after beating the Tennessee Titans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports Denny Medley USA TODAY Sports

In week 9, the chalk collided hard with the money line. On DraftKings, the nation’s second-largest book has lost five of its six biggest moneyline exposures in terms of pen percentage.

The Patriots (92%), Bengals (88%), Chiefs (88%), Vikings (85%) and Dolphins (83%) all won. Only the bills (87%) brought some relief to the bookmaker. Other big winners for the public were the Buccaneers and Seahawks money and the Titans spread (+13.5 in Kansas City).

The national books and online bookies had plenty of wins thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers holding off the Rams 16-13 in a game that fluctuated between 2 and 3 points all week before settling for 3 points early. This week also saw a push in Falcons-Chargers games. Atlanta was a 3-point underdog and lost 20-17 on a last-second field goal by the Chargers.

The numerologists had a day with four games (Jets over Bills; Vikings vs. Commanders; Falcons vs. Titans in OT) that ended 20-17. Two other games were also decided by 3 points.

The Borgata recovered from a “terrible day at college.” East Coast bettors once again rode the Gang Green Wave as the Jets beat Buffalo outright in a stunning matchup.

“We opened accounts at -13 and from the start we bet to -10 ½. A lot of Jets money in general. A complete loss in Green Bay was our best result. The Tampa-LA game, even though it landed right on the Tampa -3, (gave us) a big decision on the overall score in that game, which went in our favor,” Gable said.

Here’s how things go throughout the season with underdogs and underdogs.

Outsiders win % Selected win % Tie up win %
75 55.5 55 40.8 5 3.7
Under Total win % More than common win % Tie up win %
79 58.5 54 40.0 2 1.5

(All numbers through 135 games, including 13 of 14 games in Week 9)

Here’s a look at the top earners for the DraftKings betting public in Week 9, in terms of moneylines/spreads and odds:

Rank rate Coefficients
1. Heads M.L -900
2. Buccaneers M.L -161
3. Jets ML +335
4. Seahawks ML +110
5. Titans Spread +13.5 (-110)
Rank TD Prop Coefficients
1. Mecole Hardman is the first TD scorer +1800
2. Austin Ekeler is the all time TD scorer -150
3. Derrick Henry is an all-time TD scorer -105
4. Justin Jefferson is the all time TD scorer -110
5. Justin Jefferson is the all time TD scorer +105
Rank Props without TD Coefficients
1. Derrick Henry over 87.5 yards -135
2. Patrick Mahomes is over 271.5 yards passing -115
3. Travis Kelce is over 70.5 receiving yards -125
4. Travis Kelce is over 6.5 receptions -130
5. Mecole Hardman over 26.5 receiving yards -110

Big Games Big Bets Before Super Bowl 57

A few big bets have started coming in for Super Bowl 57. The Bills are +275 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, while the Eagles are the NFC’s +500 pick to capture their second Super Bowl ring in five years.

BetMGM has revealed some big NFL futures bets for the Big Game this week. A BetMGM customer from Tennessee placed a $100,000 bet on the Dolphins at +3,000 to win their first Super Bowl since 1974 ($3,000,000 payout).

Here are some other notable Super Bowl bets at BetMGM:

The team Rate Coefficients Winnings
Dolphins $100,000 +3000 $3,000,000
Saints $25,000 +4000 $1,000,000
Falcons 4000 dollars +25000 $1,000,000
Jet planes $5,000 +15000 $750,000
Dolphins $10,000 +4000 $400,000
Sea hawks 1300 dollars +20000 $260,000
bears 1000 dollars +15000 $150,000
Bills $20,000 +600 $120,000

Super Bowl 57 will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on February 12, 2023. The game will be televised on FOX, with kickoff scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET. Rihanna will headline the halftime show.

Week 9 Major wins and losses

There were a lot of big bets in the betting programs in week 9. Here are some notable winners and losers.

  • Book: Caesars Sportsbook (Nev.)
  • Bet: Patriots -5.5 (-110)
  • Ratio: -110
  • Bid: $500,000
  • Payout: $954,545.45

  • Book: BetMGM
  • Bet: Colts ML
  • Ratio: +185
  • Bid: $180,000
  • Losses: $180,000

  • Book: BetMGM
  • Bet: Falcons ML
  • Factor: +140
  • Bid: $100,000
  • Loss: $100,000
  • Book: Caesars
  • Bet: Titans win SB 57
  • Odds: +6000
  • Bid: $1,400
  • Potential winnings: $84,000

Responsible gambling

Always play responsibly. All licensed and legal operators in the United States have resources available to bettors, including educational guides on how to identify problem games, links to support services, and tools to self-exclude for a period of time. Support is available at National Council on Problem Gambling, 1-800-GAMBLER and American Centers for Addiction. Be sure to only bet on gambling sites that are licensed and regulated by the gaming regulatory authority in your state. This ensures the integrity of the games, the fulfillment of bets, the safety of customer funds and the availability of legal protection for consumers.

Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all places. Be sure to follow the laws in your area.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network/Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, the Orlando Sentinel and the Denver Post.

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