People vote in midterm elections at a fire station Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Gayale, Florida. Experts and officials call for patience while waiting for the election results.
AP
Millions of Americans are heading to the polls today to cast their ballots in the midterm elections that will determine which party will control Congress.
But due to a number of factors — including the time it will take to count mail-in ballots and the possibility of runoffs in some states — officials and experts say the full election results may not be known until the evening. Also, depending on the order in which ballots are counted, early results in battleground states can paint a misleading picture.
The 2020 election marked a shift in how many Americans chose to vote. Public safety concerns related to the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed greatly switch to postal voting, according to a report by the US Election Assistance Commission. The total number of mail-in ballots cast in 2020 was more than double the number cast in the 2016 election.
This trend of early voting by mail is expected to continue in this year’s election. Finished 24 million postal ballots was submitted as of Nov. 7, according to the University of Florida’s US Elections Project.
As in 2020, it is expected to take longer to get these mail-in ballots in certain states because different states have different requirements for issuing ballots for early and absentee votingaccording to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Some states, such as Arizona and Florida, can begin processing and counting ballots by November 8, while other states, such as New Hampshire and Alabama, cannot begin processing until Election Day and cannot begin counting until the polls officially close. sections, according to the conference.
According to the conference, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three states closely watched for competitive elections — can only begin opening and counting ballots on Election Day, which could delay vote counting.
“Election officials in those states have asked state legislatures increased flexibility over the past few years and repeatedly rejected, including by many lawmakers who criticized the slow 2020 vote count or supported claims that the vote count showed evidence of fraud,” according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
In 2020, the majority of mail-in ballots went to Democrats, while the battleground states generally favored Republicans on Election Day. If a similar phenomenon occurs this year, some officials warn that “red mirage,” or what appears to be a landslide for Republicans, could happen earlier on election night as mail-in ballots take longer to process, Axios reports.
Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are three states that probably will are red on election night, but as mail-in ballots are processed, Democrats are likely to see gains, according to CNN. Arizona, on the other hand, could have the opposite phenomenon because Grand Canyon State Elections process mail-in ballots immediately after they are received.
Some officials worry that the delay in counting and potentially misleading early results will lead to erroneous results. statements about election fraud, the Washington Post reports. In 2020, former President Donald Trump and his supporters took advantage of delays in the counting of votes in some states to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election. Now, two years later, the majority of GOP candidates on the midterm ballot have also received questioned or denied 2020 election results
“It will take a few days [to tabulate the results]” Pennsylvania Acting Secretary of State Lee M. Chapman said at a recent press conference, the Post reported. She added, “It doesn’t mean there’s anything nefarious going on.”
“When it comes to knowing the results, we need to get away from talking about election day and think instead election week,” said Nathan Gonzalez, publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections newsletter, according to Reuters.
Results can take the longest in Alaska, where a ranked second round the election will be held on November 23 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote on Election Day, according to Alaska Public Media.
Republicans are favored by a wide margin to win back the houseand they have a a small edge in the Senate returns, according to FiveThirtyEight projections.
